[Time] 16:00-17:00, March 21 (Saturday), 2020

[Location] Online

Lotus Pond Rain Classroom: W141WB

ZOOM ID: 352 990 928

Tecent ID🎼：447 814 512

[Speaker]  Dr. Jingui Xie

[Host] Dr. Fang He

[Title] Data Analytics in Healthcare - Optimal Stopping for Medical Treatment with Predictive Information

Note: We will register the seminar for the attendees by the record in Lotus Pond Rain Classroom.

[Abstract] Data availability and advancement in machine learning techniques make accurate prediction of the future a foreseeable reality. How to efficiently utilize the predictive information in a multistage medical decision-making environment, however, remains understudied. In this paper, we develop a discrete-time, finite-horizon Markov decision process model, incorporating perfect predictive information, to support decisions on medical treatment continuation. We extend our framework to a situation with prediction errors, using a partially observable Markov decision process. We characterize the structure of the optimal policies under both settings and show that knowing predictive information can lead to significantly different decision protocols. We calibrate and test our models with an extubation problem in an intensive care unit (ICU). Using a patient-level data set, we compare the performance of different extubation policies and demonstrate that incorporating predictive information can decrease extubation failure rate and reduce ICU length-of-stay of ventilated patients, especially for patients with poor initial conditions.

[Bio] Dr. Jingui Xie is an associate professor in the School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China (USTC). He is the director of NUS-USTC Business Analytics Center. He held visiting positions in University of Cambridge, University of Washington, National University of Singapore, Singapore Management University, and City University of Hong Kong etc. He received a Ph.D. in Management Science and Engineering from Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University in 2010. He specializes in healthcare data analytics. His works have been published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, Production and Operations Management, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, Naval Research Logistics, Queueing Systems, Operations Research Letters, International Journal of Production Research, Annals of Operations Research, Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, etc.

All interested are welcome!